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18.8万套!南京二手房挂牌量再度跌破重要关口!

  • 2026-05-09 15:46:14
18.8万套!南京二手房挂牌量再度跌破重要关口!
时隔近三个月，南京贝壳二手房挂牌量再度向下突破，截至2026年4月21日，南京贝壳二手房挂牌量已经跌破18.8万套。
这次的用时比较久，相比于之前每次下降2000套库存平均不到一个月的时间，这次的用时接近了3个月时间。
主要原因是贝壳的考核制度发生了重大变化，不再对经纪人的议价动作进行强制考核，因此那种出售意愿不强的房源得以长期停留在贝壳房源系统中。
其次就是因为每年的三四月份，其实都是房源上架的高峰期，不少家庭在这个阶段面临置换需求，所以金三银四不仅仅针对二手房成交量，实际上对于二手房挂牌量也是一样的，用官媒比较喜欢的一个词，就是“供需两旺”。
过了这个阶段，二手房的供应量和需求量会同步下降，所以，成交量和挂牌量依然是观察和预测南京楼市未来走向的重要指标。
我记得去年写关于挂牌量的文章时候，有读者问我，南京楼市什么时候会企稳，当时我给的预测是，跌破19万套，南京楼市会呈现明显止跌回稳态势，现在看基本上是准确的。
上个月国家统计局数据，南京二手房价格月环比回升0.2%，四月份环比回升也是大概率事件。
最后，还是回到挂牌量这块，去年1-4月份，南京贝壳二手房新增挂牌量是上了9万套，今年1-4月份，预计新增挂牌量是6.6-6.7万套上下，差不多是去年的75折，基本上说明在目前这个接近谷底的价格上，大家的卖房意愿还是不强的。
目前还是维持前期判断吧，18.5万套挂牌量下方，南京楼市会实现比较明显的趋势性反弹，很多板块会出现无（高性价比）房可买的情况。
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【4月21日周二推荐】阿城区招聘、房产、二手及生活服务信息

4月21日二手房成交日历--金丽丰

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  139. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/a.mffb.com.cn/runtime/temp/cbe9940b986bd319e8e4ad9d69892652.php ( 11.98 KB )
  140. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/a.mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-trace/src/Html.php ( 4.42 KB )
  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000721s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=a_mffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000677s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000914s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000765s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000515s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000292s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000592s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 506840 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000385s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1779457707 WHERE `id` = 506840 [ RunTime:0.004276s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 66 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000236s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 506840 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000778s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 506840 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000425s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 506840 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.000878s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 506840 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.000757s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 506840 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.003965s ]
0.181798s