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二手房成交断崖下跌,川普警告伊朗最后48小时

  • 2026-04-19 23:51:50
二手房成交断崖下跌,川普警告伊朗最后48小时
这些天二手房成交量呈断崖式下跌
在三月末上海的二手房成交量可谓疯狂
工作日是900至1000套的成交数据
周六更是高达1585套
而来到四月初，成交量骤降
工作日700套的成交数据
昨天更是只剩400多套的成交了
这是否意味着楼市的火爆已告一段落
环比三月末虽显著下降
但同比去年四月却是大幅增加的
去年四月初工作日三天平均成交638套
今年四月初工作日三天平均成交780套
同比增长了22%
去年清明节当日成交179套
今年清明节当日成交455套
同比增长了254%
丝毫无须质疑四月
四月恐怕比三月更为疯狂
全月预计成交将达35000套
是真正量价齐升的一个月
当然预期更恐怖的将是5月
下跌两三年，创新高需要几个月？
答案是仅需两三个月！
这是人性机制的必然
从置换普遍选择先卖后买
无限增加净卖盘的向下螺旋绞杀
再到置换普遍选择先买后卖
无限增加净买盘的向上螺旋绞杀
楼市一旦启动就是三个月变天
有点像股市中有色板块的启动一样
其K线图类似这样：
目前楼市正处于火山口
即将迎来更猛烈的喷发
再来看美伊局势
昨天特朗普警告伊朗，
如果不能达成协议
则48小时内会采取进一步行动
以我对特朗普的理解
主要分两点
首先美军再度集结
采取进一步行动是一定的
预先通知仅仅是合理化进一步行动
其次特朗普出手特征
喜欢让对手的神经从紧绷到放松
比如说好48小时最后通牒
结果48小时到了也不打
甚至72小时到了也不打
这时大家就开始耻笑特朗普
觉得特不靠谱又是忽悠大家
觉得其颜面扫地，说话如放屁
而就在72小时过去后
他又突然发动全面打击
这就是特朗普独有的TACO式拉扯
他不会在人们觉得他将执行时执行
他会在人们觉得他在放屁时执行
出尔反尔再反而是他TACO的精髓
因为这有利于他在资本市场
画出只有他才能事先知道的K线节奏
当然了，众所周知
美以本质上的袭击目标并非伊朗
而是A股股民的账户
最后聊聊我重仓的黄金
我们来对比一段走势：
目前黄金的走势特征
与2020年年初的上证指数极为相似
我给这种走势后续演化的过程
取名为：暴涨不过，缓涨能过？
我们来看2020年上证指数的运行：
然而最终并非走了预期段
最终走势极其反直觉：
此次黄金的走势大概率将复刻这种走势：
如上图，当人们因暴涨而上过一次当后
缓涨就没有人会再信了
而行情恰恰在没人再信时悄然启动
综上
股市将迎来断崖式下行
楼市将迎来井喷式上行
黄金缓涨过后将暴涨
黄金，乱世夜空最亮的星
承载着人类文明的底线！
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.001148s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=a_mffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.001436s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000735s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.001181s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.001456s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.005774s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.001692s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 498525 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.006227s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1777122712 WHERE `id` = 498525 [ RunTime:0.005422s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 66 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001004s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 498525 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001737s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 498525 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.005145s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 498525 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.008450s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 498525 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.002633s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 498525 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.002796s ]
0.237509s