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别被3月数据骗了!二手房每年都是:涨一月,跌半年

  • 2026-05-07 20:19:12
别被3月数据骗了!二手房每年都是:涨一月,跌半年
    2026年4月已经过去了，在过去几次分析高盛的地产研报中，都给出了很高的预期，今天来看看4月30日野村宏观团队发布的一份研报，给出的观点也是相当的谨慎。
    野村 2026 年 4-5 月报告显示，中国房企 4 月合约销售额降幅收窄，核心城市与国企开发商表现更优，但三四线城市市场仍大幅萎缩。详细表述如下：
    1.销售增速改善：4月百强房企合约销售额面积同比-15.4%、金额同比-7.8%，较3月-18.1%、-16.2%明显收窄。
    2.城市分化显著：20个重点城市新房销售面积同比+4.7%，18个重点城市二手房销量同比+13.9%；三四线城市因人口持续流出，市场仍大幅收缩。
    3.驱动与政策：改善由大城市与国企开发商主导；政治局表态稳楼市后，深圳、广州、天津出台放松政策，但野村判断全国层面暂不会推出大规模刺激。
    4.整体判断：一线虽有回暖迹象，但市场情绪悲观，地产行业短期难真正企稳。
    上面是野村的报告结论：全国范围的内的地产刺激不会有，仅仅有的也就是因城施策。下面来看看“中指云”的数据，重点就是4月100城二手房继续环比下跌0.46%。原文可以去这个地址去读取：https://www.cih-index.com/report/detail/120812.html
    无论是4月初高盛多次发研报无论怎么唱多市场，它们研报中都忽略了一个重要的问题，就是二手房的销售都是有季节性特点，2月春节需求量少，同时3月4月需求量旺盛，那伴随着5 6 7月二手房销售淡季来临，下跌趋势会继续延续。如下图所示：每一年三月份都有一波上涨，随后就是跌跌不休。
本文来自网友投稿或网络内容，如有侵犯您的权益请联系我们删除，联系邮箱：wyl860211@qq.com 。

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  139. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/a.mffb.com.cn/runtime/temp/cbe9940b986bd319e8e4ad9d69892652.php ( 11.98 KB )
  140. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/a.mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-trace/src/Html.php ( 4.42 KB )
  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000556s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=a_mffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000851s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000331s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000280s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000524s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000193s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000596s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 516018 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000826s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1778168627 WHERE `id` = 516018 [ RunTime:0.003732s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 66 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000268s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 516018 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000595s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 516018 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000503s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 516018 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.000728s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 516018 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.002041s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 516018 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.000680s ]
0.087908s