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上市房产企业利润知多少,复苏了吗?

  • 2026-05-05 03:02:42
上市房产企业利润知多少,复苏了吗?
处于水深火热的房地产公司股价大多跌破50%及以上，这几年大多数公司陆续进入资产负债表衰退阶段。随着2026年一季报房产企业业绩的持续公布，是否有复苏迹象。特挑选出了21家A+H 地产上市公司 2025-2026 年核心财务数据、盈利预测及股价表现进行总结，具体如下：

一、财务表现：盈利分化显著，减亏与增长并存

盈利梯队清晰划分：
第一梯队（稳健增长）：港资房企（新鸿基地产、长实集团、恒基地产）及优质央国企（华润置地、中国海外发展）2025 年净利润均实现正收益，2026 年预测利润增长率集中在 19.9%-31.1%，核心依赖核心城市土储、稳定租金收入及低债务压力，抗风险能力突出；
第二梯队（盈利下滑）：部分央国企及优质民企（保利发展、招商蛇口、新城控股）2025 年盈利仍为正，但 2026 年预测利润同比下滑 20%-49.6%，主要受非核心城市去化放缓、项目结转节奏调整影响；
第三梯队（减亏修复）：出险房企（万科系、碧桂园、融创中国、旭辉控股等）2025 年仍处于亏损状态，但 2026 年减亏幅度显著（30%-50.1%），受益于债务重组推进、资产处置回款及政策支持下的项目复工复产，亏损收窄趋势明确。

二、股价表现：市场情绪分化，估值与基本面强绑定

股价跌幅与盈利基本面高度相关：稳健盈利房企股价抗跌性强：2023 年初至今跌幅仅 - 7.5%（恒基地产）至 - 45.2%（中国海外发展），2025 年初至今跌幅进一步收窄至 - 7.5%（恒基地产）至 - 32.8%（中国海外发展），市场对其盈利稳定性给予估值溢价；
亏损及高风险房企股价承压：2023 年初至今跌幅普遍超 70%，其中旭辉控股（-98.7%）、华夏幸福（-96.2%）、碧桂园（-94.5%）跌幅居前，2025 年初至今跌幅仍达 87.5%-96.3%，反映市场对其债务化解进度及盈利修复确定性的担忧。

三、结构性复苏但债务化解仍是核心变量

从以上样本可以看出，行业已从 “全面下行” 转向 “结构性回暖”，复苏动力集中在核心城市改善型需求、优质房企的项目去化及出险房企的减亏修复，而非普涨行情；
但债务压力依然是分化核心变量 —— 低债务房企（债务压力系数 <5）可通过拿地扩张巩固优势，高债务房企仍需聚焦 “保交楼、化债务”，短期内难以回归扩张轨道。 2026 年期待盈利稳定的港资房企及央国企将持续领跑，出险房企减亏进程希望能逐步减少。
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000894s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=a_mffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.001448s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000786s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.003950s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.001451s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.002994s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.001594s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 511840 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001257s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1778643393 WHERE `id` = 511840 [ RunTime:0.001332s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 64 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000830s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 511840 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.004172s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 511840 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.039479s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 511840 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.032421s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 511840 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.061651s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 511840 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.017574s ]
0.346647s