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人口危机与地产破局

  • 2026-02-09 05:59:09
人口危机与地产破局
2025人口警报拉响
  • 总人口14.0489亿，年减339万
  • 出生率5.63‰创历史新低，死亡率8.04‰创新高
  • 60岁以上占比23%（3.23亿人），65岁以上达15.9%（2.23亿人）
地产行业面临三重暴击
  1. 需求塌方
    • 劳动人口（16-59岁）8.5亿但持续萎缩
    • 00后比90后少4700万，刚需基数断崖
  2. 资产重估
    • 三四线城市"老破小"加速沦为负资产
    • 养老地产需求激增但支付能力不足
  3. 模式颠覆
    • 高周转依赖的"收割年轻人"逻辑失效
    • 开发商被迫转型代建、城市更新等存量赛道
破局方向
  • 产品革命：适老化改造（全屋无障碍/紧急呼叫系统）
  • 服务升级：社区嵌入养老驿站+健康管理
  • 价值重构：从卖房子转向卖"康养生活解决方案"
人口负增长不是终点，而是地产真正回归居住本质的起点。当行业褪去金融泡沫，或许才能诞生真正尊重人性的好产品。
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.001111s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=a_mffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.001406s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.011731s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.001505s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.001489s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.002468s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.001524s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 463110 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000959s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1771389197 WHERE `id` = 463110 [ RunTime:0.008369s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001026s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 463110 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.003901s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 463110 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.002809s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 463110 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.039846s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 463110 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.045477s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 463110 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.021608s ]
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