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大摩怎么看今天白酒和地产的反弹(1月29日)

  • 2026-02-09 05:19:25
大摩怎么看今天白酒和地产的反弹(1月29日)
下午搞笑的神图看了不少，缓解了看着半导体暴跌的心情。
大摩分析师非常神速，对白酒和地产都写了短评。看完心情又好了一点。
结论也很明确
  • 地产板块的强劲反弹主要是由情绪和非基本面因素驱动，缺乏可持续的基础
  • 市场对于实体市场复苏过于乐观。由于该行业高估值的现实以及上述多重阻力，预计在财报季前后，板块将面临回调压力，尤其是一些高估值、盈利可能不及预期的公司。
  • 白酒则可能是一次战术性反弹，主要由地产利好消息以及春节销售高峰期批发价格反弹等短期因素支撑，但基本面方面下行周期还未触底。
以下是对核心要点的整理
01 为什么地产的反弹可能只是昙花一现？
反弹的驱动力很脆弱：
  • 积极的政策消息提升了情绪：虽然监管层表态看起来更支持，但大摩还是继续他们一贯以来的观点，任何实质性住房政策仍将是反应式的，而非主动强刺激。
  • 销量短暂回暖：近期销售回升主要归因于今年春节较晚带来的日历效应，以及年初的一些温和政策放宽。大摩还是维持之前的审慎预测，即一线城市将继续下跌两年。
  • 资金流向来自板块轮动：资金正转向那些表现滞后的领域，而考虑到房地产前景，对这部分资金流入的持续性表示怀疑。
近期将面临多重阻力的到来：
  • 销量和价格可能回落：随着短期政策效应和春节假期季节性因素消退，未来几个月可能销售可能放缓，价格跌幅可能再次扩大。
  • 进一步强力政策的可能性降低：由于近期一线城市销量已有改善，出台大规模刺激政策的可能性反而降低，尤其是春节前。
  • 财报季压力：开发商即将发布盈利警告，预计2025年业绩将出现大幅下滑或亏损。
  • 同时，预计在3月业绩发布会上，开发商对销售、开发利润和盈利复苏的指引也会趋于谨慎。
02 为什么白酒上涨短期有支撑，长期基本面未触底？
可能是一次战术性反弹，主要由情绪和短期因素支撑；基本面方面，需求下行周期尚未结束。
今天白酒的大反弹（平均涨幅约为10%，而上证指数则保持平稳）主要是受地产利好消息以及春节销售高峰期过后批发价格反弹等因素的驱动。
大摩认为，这一次的上涨具有阶段性特征：资金流入及市场情绪的好转为股价提供了短期支撑，但基本面需求仍需时间才能触底。不过白酒中茅台依然是最值得的。
短期上涨有支撑：
  • 情绪驱动：与地产反弹类似，白酒板块的上涨也受到房地产积极消息的提振，以及资金流和情绪改善的支撑。
  • 春节旺季价格反弹：近期批发商价格受到春节旺季效应的带动有所反弹，为板块提供了短期利好。
长期基本面尚未触底：
根据近期渠道调研，总体需求很可能仍将同比下降，但头部企业和其他企业有所分化
  • 茅台 ：表现最坚实，飞天茅台的经销商预付比例（33%）优于去年同期（26-27%），节前销售仍有正增长。
  • 五粮液 ：在其销售区域内，节前销售降幅有所缩窄；批发价好于预期。
  • 其他品牌 ：销量出现两位数同比下滑，且节前预付款进度也低于去年。

end

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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000749s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=a_mffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.001033s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000413s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000334s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000756s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000313s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000693s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 466861 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001353s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1770652895 WHERE `id` = 466861 [ RunTime:0.015617s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.026883s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 466861 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.008948s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 466861 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000644s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 466861 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.002420s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 466861 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.003304s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 466861 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.010535s ]
0.216508s