亲爱的，有梦想的小伙伴们，大家早上好。
School holiday weeks in the middle of winter are never a great time to be auctioning a property, as the latest results confirm.
正值寒冬的学校假期周，从来都不是拍卖房产的好时机，最新的数据恰好印证了这一点。
Interest.co.nz monitored the auctions of just 234 residential properties over the week of 11-17 July, which was just two more than the previous week's record low for this year so far.
Interest.co.nz 在7月11日至17日这一周内，仅监测到234套住宅房产参与拍卖，这一数字仅比前一周创下的今年最低纪录多了两套。
The sales rate wasn't great either, just managing to creep above a third, with 79 properties sold under the hammer, giving an overall sales rate of 34%.
成交率同样不容乐观，仅勉强突破三分之一。共有79套房产在拍卖槌下成交，整体成交率为34%。
Of the 79 properties that sold under the hammer, 59% achieved prices that were above or at least equal to their respective rating valuations.
在成交的79套房产中，59%的成交价高于或至少等于各自的政府估价（RV）。
So all in all, it was almost as dreary inside the auction rooms over the last couple of weeks as the weather was on the outside.
因此，总体来看，过去几周拍卖室内的气氛，几乎和室外的寒冬天气一样冷清。
Looking closer at the numbers, the 234 auctions monitored represent a significant drop from the peak months earlier this year, when weekly auction volumes routinely exceeded 400. The mid-winter slump, compounded by school holidays, has clearly taken a toll on seller confidence. Many vendors have chosen to delay their listings until spring, hoping for warmer weather and a more active buyer pool.
仔细观察这些数据，监测到的234场拍卖相比今年早些时候的高峰月份大幅下降——当时每周拍卖数量通常超过400场。隆冬淡季叠加学校假期，显然打击了卖家的信心。许多业主选择将挂牌推迟到春季，期待更暖和的天气和更活跃的买家群体。
Buyers, on the other hand, appear to be in no rush. With the Official Cash Rate sitting at 2.50% and inflation still hovering near 4%, mortgage costs remain elevated. Families are prioritising school holiday travel and winter expenses over property hunting, and those who do attend auctions are often selective, bidding cautiously and only when the price feels right.
而买家方面，似乎并不急于出手。由于官方现金利率维持在2.50%，通胀仍徘徊在4%附近，房贷成本依然高企。家庭优先考虑假期出行和冬季开支，而不是看房置业。那些确实出席拍卖会的人往往十分挑剔，出价谨慎，只有在价格合适时才会举牌。
The regional breakdown tells a similar story. In Auckland, which typically drives the national auction market, only 145 properties went under the hammer, with a sales rate of just 36%. Wellington and Christchurch fared even worse, with sales rates dipping below 30% in some suburbs. The only bright spot was in a handful of affordable outer-suburban areas, where first-home buyers managed to snap up a few bargains below RV.
分地区来看，情况如出一辙。在通常主导全国拍卖市场的奥克兰，仅有145套房产被拍卖，成交率仅为36%。惠灵顿和基督城表现更差，部分郊区的成交率跌至30%以下。唯一的亮点出现在少数价格可负担的外围郊区，首次购房者在那里捡到了一些低于政府估价的便宜货。
Interestingly, the 59% of sold properties achieving at or above RV suggests that quality homes in desirable locations are still holding their value. However, the flip side is that 41% of successful sales went for below RV, indicating that even in a sluggish market, motivated sellers are having to compromise on price.
有趣的是，成交房产中59%达到或超过政府估价，这表明优质地段的品质房产依然保值。但反过来看，41%的成交价低于估价，说明即使在低迷市场中，急于脱手的卖家也不得不在价格上做出让步。
Agents report that open home attendance has also dropped sharply during the holiday weeks, with some viewings attracting just one or two groups. Many agents are now advising vendors to wait until August, when school holidays end and the spring selling season begins to build momentum, before launching their campaigns.
房产中介报告称，假期周内开放看房的参观人数也急剧下降，有些看房活动仅吸引了一两组人。许多中介现在建议卖家等到8月，待学校假期结束、春季销售季开始积蓄势头后，再启动他们的挂牌计划。
Looking ahead, the next major catalyst for the market will be next Tuesday's CPI release. If inflation comes in hotter than expected, the RBNZ may be forced to consider further rate hikes, which would put additional pressure on mortgage borrowers and further cool buyer demand. Conversely, a softer inflation print could offer some relief and potentially spark a late-winter rebound in buyer activity.
展望未来，市场的下一个主要催化剂将是下周二发布的CPI数据。如果通胀高于预期，储备银行可能被迫考虑进一步加息，这将给房贷借款人带来额外压力，进一步冷却买家需求。反之，如果通胀数据较温和，则可能带来一些缓解，并有可能在冬末引发买家活动的反弹。
For now, though, the auction rooms remain quiet. The combination of winter weather, school holidays, high interest rates, and inflation uncertainty has created a perfect storm of caution. Sellers are holding back, buyers are waiting, and agents are bracing for what many expect to be a subdued few weeks until the market wakes up again in spring.
不过就目前而言，拍卖室依然寂静。冬季天气、学校假期、高利率和通胀不确定性共同形成了一场“谨慎的完美风暴”。卖家在观望，买家在等待，而中介们则正准备迎接许多人预期的、直到春季市场再次苏醒之前的几周沉寂。
In the end, the numbers don't lie: 234 auctions, 34% clearance, and a market that's clearly in hibernation. Whether the spring thaw brings renewed energy or continued chill will depend largely on what the inflation data shows and how the RBNZ responds in the months ahead.
归根结底，数据不会说谎：234场拍卖，34%的清盘率，一个明显处于“冬眠”状态的市场。春季解冻能否带来新的活力还是延续寒意，将在很大程度上取决于通胀数据的表现以及储备银行在未来几个月如何应对。
好了，今天的分享就到此结束了，希望可以帮到需要的你。
