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二手房的成交量,终于修复了

  • 2026-08-07 17:55:15
二手房的成交量,终于修复了
统计了过去5年二手房季度成交量走势
今年二季度终于放量了
24年4季度，成交量之所以大涨，是因为出台了强力救市政策，结果只反弹了半年时间，就熄火了
那轮反弹，对投资客伤害最大
大家都觉得行情反转跑步入场了，结果又来了一轮大跌
抄底抄在山腰上，就是24年4季度
然后26年2季度，在没有任何刺激政策下
苏州二手房独立走出了新高成交量
可以理解为市场自发修复行为
但是房价趋势属于单边下跌
也就是说成交量大涨，但房价不仅没涨，甚至勉强企稳
楼市信心还是非常不足
从均值跌幅看，很多区已经跌回到2016年之前
因为我的数据库最早数据是2015年7月左右，而且数据样本很小
所以准确的说，已经跌回到2016年之前了
2016年开始跳涨，连续涨了5年，2021年Q1见顶，然后5年阴跌，现在全部跌回去了
没人想到房价会跌这么多，也没人相信房价会跌这么多
另外玲珑湾板块跌幅50%左右，斜塘板块跌幅30%左右
越是改善的区域，当年涨的越多，现在也跌的也多
楼市地段很值钱，但也要看在什么时间买入
从这些热门小区的成交价可以明显看出来
坏消息，房价跌了40-50%
好消息，现在房价便宜了，很多人愿意下手了
尤其今年哪怕没有任何政策，二手成交量也在修复
还有一点，二手房80%的成交量集中在250万以内
过去几年，这个总价段没有新房供应，挤压了买盘到二手房市场
现在操盘手目的很明确
减少新房供应，稳住底部刚需二手，然后再拉长周期慢慢修复市场信心
现在楼市不缺买房人，缺的是信心
也有很多朋友现在问我，房价还会涨吗？
虽然今年有极个别小区房价反弹了，但也是基于这些小区跌的太凶了
超跌后的反弹一般并不具有持续性
个人认为今年次新的反弹，基本到顶了
整体房价本文第二张图已经可以看的很明显
今年更多的走势是量涨，价稳
昨天直播的时候我也简单讲了
什么时候开发商敢像以前拿地，什么时候再关注房价涨跌
现在更应该关注的是买房需求和性价比高的房子
不过有一点，从今天开始对楼市应该乐观一些
现在市场底部特征非常明显
从现在开始应该更乐观一些
市场不会再坏下去了
对于我来讲，年初的时候就讲过了
非必要，不卖房，置换的客户抓紧换
公众号改版新规
进苏州楼市群+麦子V信：maizi1913
免责声明：以上仅代表个人建议，不构成任何买房依据，仅供楼市友好交流，有误之处还请指出，有不同意见者，请以自己判断为准
本文来自网友投稿或网络内容，如有侵犯您的权益请联系我们删除，联系邮箱：wyl860211@qq.com 。

二手房谈价必查的3个数据|不亏

快看,焦作市7月份二手房挂牌价出炉

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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.001094s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=a_mffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.002081s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000727s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000632s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.001517s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000533s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.001495s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 554439 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.005627s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1786103384 WHERE `id` = 554439 [ RunTime:0.001379s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 66 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000559s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 554439 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001125s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 554439 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000891s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 554439 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.001489s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 554439 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.010279s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 554439 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.006783s ]
0.130504s