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焦煤期货等黑色系大涨,地产终是明日黄花

  • 2026-02-09 05:29:40
焦煤期货等黑色系大涨,地产终是明日黄花
今天焦煤大涨3.93%，铁矿涨1.78%，纯碱涨2.6%，今天有消息地产企业“三道红线”取消，还有某财经女博主鼓吹中国地产拐点确认。加上商品本身的牛市氛围，黑色系也迎来了反弹。但地产目前只能说止跌，或者接近底部，离真正的反弹都还远，更不要说反转。
具体几个品种基本面来看，焦煤上方1350的限制非常扎实，下边1000的整数关口支撑却只是心理意义上的。国内只能炒一下安监，整个26年蒙煤依然会是焦煤价格的“限高杆”，一旦给出超额利润就有远远不断的运煤车抵达甘其毛都口岸。这个位置可以轻仓布空，没有持仓风险的情况下多跌多卖。
铁矿石则是一个基本面长期趋空的品种，虽然矿山一直处于钢铁利润链的顶端，但中国谈判的话语权越来越大，盯着行业亏损吃高价矿的时代一去不复还。另外，几内亚的西芒杜铁矿虽然26年绝对发运量有限，但首船铁矿山已经抵达国内，就犹如灰犀牛一旦发力会让本就羸弱的铁矿基本面进一步崩塌。
纯碱和玻璃本应是地产链的急先锋，但今天走得都比较弱。这俩其实更好分析，玻璃的需求大家已经不抱期待，主要看产能的收缩，但目前行业还没有大规模的停火。纯碱的价格下限就是天然碱法的800元左右，玻璃无论强弱都不改纯碱的弱，所以确定性更高一些。

预期与现实的共振

黑色系的暴涨是政策预期与资金博弈的结果，而非基本面反转；地产的低迷，则是长期人口红利消退、债务压力积累的必然结果。黑色系“预期透支”后的回调是风险也行机遇。在大牛市氛围下确实可能“鸡犬升天”，但那些支撑弱的品种一定涨得最慢，跌的最恨，控制风险，保持耐心！

风险揭示

1. 本账号拥有原创文章的版权和其他相关的知识产权，未经许可任何单位或个人都不得以任何方式引用、转载、刊发本账号的部分或者全部内容，否则保留追究其相关法律责任的权力。
2. 本账号主要记录本人思考和知识科普，不构成任何投资、法律、会计或税务建议。期货风险很大，请投资者务必独立进行交易决策，注意投资风险！
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000972s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=a_mffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.001728s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000777s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.002457s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.001643s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.017092s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.001915s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 466743 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001143s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1770674861 WHERE `id` = 466743 [ RunTime:0.004882s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.007738s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 466743 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.004453s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 466743 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.004165s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 466743 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.027799s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 466743 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.042924s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 466743 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.023585s ]
0.319383s