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世界变得太快,管中窥个豹:地产与有色

  • 2026-02-01 23:28:42
世界变得太快,管中窥个豹:地产与有色
上周搞得我蛮挫败的：刚说买入长电，长电跟着又跌了一块钱（还好基本收复了）；刚骂完白酒，没几天酒etf都能涨停。像给什么反向指标附身了一样。
市场太疯狂，盛赞“煤飞色舞”的在上周，有色etf跌停也在上周，白银期货杀完空头杀多头，很怀疑场上还留着活口吗。内外围消息都不少，我来管中窥个豹。
房地产方面，几周前把商住房的首付比例降到了30%，上周又开始对大多数房企不再要求每月上报“三条红线”。李蓓前脚刚预测房地产见底（虽然我印象中她这个口径好几年了），第二天酒板块作为地产强关联的杠杆资产集体涨停，难道这回给她说对了？ 在我看来这事儿和主力压权重、要慢牛是同一个目标导向的动作——要股市这个蓄水池，但房地产的蓄水池也不能放下。地产的老池子已经烂透了（周末万科发布年报巨亏820亿！……但深铁仍未放弃万科，又借了它20亿！），上面决定给老池子留条活路，转而扶持“商住房”（也就是“租售比”）这个新池子。
下跌不言底。在这样下跌的大趋势中，商住房会成为一个走得较好的分支，快于板块走出底部。
有色方面，前半周走疯狗行情，当时我就说看起来是赶顶，于是把手上的铝出掉了，逃顶一部分但不多，因为紫金并没动。
周五美联储换了主席，从“加息-扩表”转向“降息-缩表”，虽说还没有具体的政策出台，btc已为即将到来的流动性紧缩提前暴跌。红利资产可以高看一眼了。有一个有意思的问题，大家都可以问问看自己然后投向相应的立场：对于特不靠谱而言，是美国重要还是美元重要？
我还是维持我年前写的文章中的判断：特有足够的动机去让石油涨价。
石油是美元的锚定物，化工是石油的杠杆资产，光伏是石油的替代；石油是西大的长项，光伏是东大的长项（化工也是）。可以去化工、光伏&锂矿、以及光伏化工中找找机会。
贵金属和石油及其关联板块是不同的逻辑（无关美元的价值，有关美元的信用度），走的也是不同的的周期，如果说有色刚走完一浪，石油还没有开始走一浪。上涨不言顶，有大利润的人，可以留在桌上看底牌；利润不大的，撤出成本至少拿到今年中期选举之后；抄底资金不要急于进场，等春节后开工潮再看。
一般说有色的传递链条收尾会是钢铁，大概会是和地产的死猫跳来个同步吧。这种场面也只能走一步看一步了，埋伏倒是没啥必要。
本文来自网友投稿或网络内容，如有侵犯您的权益请联系我们删除，联系邮箱：wyl860211@qq.com 。

【招商房地产】最新一周二手房网签面积农历同比下降10%——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪

重庆2026年第5周房地产市场盘点

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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000371s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=a_mffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000520s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000279s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000267s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000488s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000186s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000544s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 468706 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000427s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1770310417 WHERE `id` = 468706 [ RunTime:0.042421s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.004755s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 468706 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000478s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 468706 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000405s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 468706 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.019974s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 468706 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.002973s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 468706 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.011446s ]
0.153384s