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地产救市,已经刹不住车了!

  • 2026-02-24 22:59:12
地产救市,已经刹不住车了!
01
刚刚，楼市再出重磅政策，首套首付比例最低15%，二套最低25%。同时，取消贷款利率下限，从明天起下调公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点。

▲说实话，2024这一年，楼市中最热闹的不是涨价，而是不断的、几乎刹不住车一样的出救市政策。
虽然每一次出手，就差那么一点点就能让人高潮，但持续不断的刺激，也是让人欲仙欲死、欲罢不能！只是这一次，是否触及到了大家的G点？
要知道，自去年出台最低20%的“史上最低首付”政策后，楼市还是相当红火了一阵子，而20%的首付，意味着5倍杠杆。
如今，只需要15%的首付、三点几的按揭利率，可谓建国以来的最低，相比以前，足足有7倍杠杆！对于头铁的刚需，尤其是北上深等高房价城市的刚需来说，确实是一大福音！
▲此次新政，最为利好北京上海深圳等高房价城市！图为北京5月二手房成交曲线图。
02
当然，放松限贷了，但贷的钱总归要还。
不要看当前鼓励加杠杆，这个政策背后的深意是，房价最多还能跌10%—15%。
换句话说，政策认为市场的“铁底”，就是当前价再跌10%—15%。因为再多跌的话，按照这个首付比例，新买的房子就是负资产了。
因此，鼓励加杠杆，有利也有弊。有利是上车更容易了，弊端则是一旦房价继续下跌，很容易买到一个负资产，所以对于刚需来说，买房，一定要买抗跌的板块和楼盘，千万不要盲目投资！
▲对于还有买房计划的朋友，可以添加庆哥微信，交流、咨询全国新房、二手房。
另一方面，在首付和贷款利率降低之后，下一步需要解决的就是月供。只有大家对自己未来的收入形成稳定增长的预期了，才能真正解决目前楼市需求不振的问题。
那么如何解决月供呢？新闻并没有提，我相信大家自己也心知肚明。
也许这一个政策，本身就是为月供流水良好同时有购房需求的人准备的，对于月供有压力的朋友，贷款额度越高、还款压力越大，降首付并不见得是利好。
03
庆哥一向说实话，讲真话！从4月底以来，一线城市解限购、全国房贷降利率、全国商品房降首付，甚至各城市酝酿回购房产做公租房和保障房，诚意不可谓不足，救市的意志不可谓不强！
▲5月以来的这一波救市，源于今年1-4月的销售反弹并不明显！房地产仍在寻底！（截图来源：华尔街见闻APP）
然而，我要说的是，救市也要遵循客观的市场规律。比如昨天网传的由政府来回购数百万套未售出的存量住房，就有一个最客观的疑问：当前财政本就缺钱，回购的钱从哪来？
要知道，房地产本来是一个向买房人收税的工具，如今想让财政大规模的送钱给房地产，这种操作我是从来没见过！现在，很多地方资金捉襟见肘，很多地方在绞尽脑汁如何增加收入来源，哪里还有钱去给房地产大规模送钱？！
▲就连富裕的上海，也在想办法创收！
因此，小规模的试水收购，弥补公租房和保障房的不足，这个是可行且有实际案例，但要大规模回购去救楼市，不说效果如何，光是财政估计就吃不消！
真正有实际操作意义的救市，估计还是放开买卖限制、贷款限制，让月供流水充足的人敢于进场，同时尽量维持房价不跌或少跌（例如暂停土地出让、放开落户限制），让进场的人不亏、形成底部效应！
当然最最重要的是，还是要提高就业收入、普惠各级产业、深化对外改革开放、多多吸引外国人和外资来中国！
本文作者：陈庆
（全国新房、二手房咨询交流，欢迎添加庆哥微信）
本文来自网友投稿或网络内容，如有侵犯您的权益请联系我们删除，联系邮箱：wyl860211@qq.com 。

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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000952s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=a_mffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.001884s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000764s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000651s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.001611s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000596s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.001757s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 458071 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001107s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1772421514 WHERE `id` = 458071 [ RunTime:0.005275s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000661s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 458071 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001097s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 458071 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.005557s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 458071 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.003161s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 458071 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.005902s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 458071 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.003427s ]
0.189127s