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地产板块有机会吗

  • 2026-02-09 06:27:31
地产板块有机会吗
    这两天市场有一些讨论，感觉地产、建材、石油石化这些板块有机会，然后人们就在想，市场风格会切换吗？
    在讨论之初，我也有想法觉得会切换，理由很明确，就是上海马上要出的地产放松政策力度比较大，然后开年以来一线城市二手房成交也比较好，还有就是地产链这些板块机构仓位非常轻，涨起来几乎没有卖盘。
   看下面这个图，它是地产里面当前几乎最好的一个公司了，短期股价确实也冒了头。
    如果是从前的我，一定二话不说就去买地产链了。不过，现在的我进步了，我在思考，当我把结构切换到地产链的时候，我是做了哪些判断。是三个判断，一是地产实体能企稳反弹，二是地产放松政策力度真的很大，三是流动性支持地产股上涨。假如我每个判断准确率有70%，那么我三个判断都对的可能性就是34%，这等于我切换到地产的胜率就是34%。
    作为战术决策，这个胜率肯定是不行了。那么如果是战略决策呢，我给2026年定的基调就是大国竞争，细节不说了，这种国家竞争的核心是科技，跟地产没啥关系，所以从战略上，地产是个没有价值的板块。
    退一步说，假如这34%的战术机会真的出现了，地产也不一定能跑赢科技。我把滨江和北方华创的图放一起，立刻能发现，每次滨江有机会，北方华创也有，累计起来的涨幅还更高。
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    然后说到指数本身，12月以来的国家队变质了，不再是4月-11月那个画线水平让人叹为观止的控盘大师，而像个上一天班敲一天钟的社畜。从12月中旬连拉十几根阳线，到这几天机械式卖出，毫无艺术感可言。
    我不知道背后发生了什么，资本市场上大量的变化都是难以知道背后真相的。但从这个现象上，我感觉自己之前对国家队的一个猜测估计要落空了，那个猜测是国家队如果发现市场热度太高，会发狠把指数砸下来打破单边上涨预期。这个猜测的成立基础是国家队还是那个大师，而一个社畜不会考虑这些。
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    想了越来越多之后，我越来越明白一个道理，就是资本市场上我们看不到的东西太多了，一笔交易下去，胜负当然要看个人的努力，但历史的进程更为重要。我之前很想精确掌握资产价格变动的真实脉络，后来发现，不是我不行，而是人的精力有限、获取全面信息的可行性低、资本市场本身也充满变数，所以这是一条只存在于想象中的路，我们要做资本市场交易，要接受自己就是面对大量解决不了的不确定性这个事实。
    但是，我们也不能因此敬畏市场，市场没什么好敬畏的，我们只是无法全面了解而已。接受自己掌握不了市场的事实，理解投资盈亏是主客观因素共同作用的结果。
    个人的主观能动性在于，可以通过努力掌握越来越多的规律，提高一次次交易的获胜可能性。这也意味着我们不能像赌徒一样期望搏一两次大的，因为掌握很多知识的作用只有在更多次的交易中才能体现更多，如果只搞一两次大的，知识掌握多不多的影响其实没那么大。
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【房屋出售 无中介费】滕州今日新上个人二手房出售房源 2026.01.23

地产至暗时刻:最不被看好的资产里,藏着什么机会?

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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.001016s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=a_mffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.001561s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000859s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.002513s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.001479s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000827s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.001571s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 464246 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.002051s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1771157426 WHERE `id` = 464246 [ RunTime:0.025572s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000853s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 464246 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.012520s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 464246 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.002142s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 464246 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.013763s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 464246 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.006414s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 464246 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.006974s ]
0.305182s