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地产板块要重视了

  • 2026-02-05 08:15:53
地产板块要重视了
一、交易复盘
tmp低吸了百川做了个t，化工盘中走强还上了点红宝丽。地产超预期上了京投发展、特发服务。地产和化工近期重点关注，tmp昨天又涨了2%多，地产周二启动第一天，周三有些超预期了，地产行业最近明显看到了一些边际改善的东西，行业优等生万科的出清可以视为行业利空出尽的信号，国家队下场收二手房作为保障房已经有实质性动作，深圳1月份二手房成交出现了底部放量的信号，尤其是豪宅市场率先回暖。接下来化工地产白酒都作为重点关注的周期复苏方向。
二、大势研判
24年9月底10月初那一波是一浪上涨，二浪调整走了一个很复杂的结构，那么三浪很可能就会以一种很流畅的方式进行演绎，高度上沪指可看到4500以上，创业板指可看到3200-3500或更高，这个过程中的调整很可能都是小级别的调整，大级别的调整要等到3浪上涨完成后的4浪调整，而4浪调整则要十分谨慎，因为2浪的调整以复杂结构演绎后，4浪调整就很有可能变成一种快速又凶猛的简单结构方式演绎，这一点是到三浪后段需要引起注意的。这波牛市最后的5浪上涨很可能会超过15年的高点，当然这个还有点远，以后再边走边看。
A股过往历史上一共三次突破4000点，分别是07年牛市、15年牛市和当前这轮牛市，07年是从1000点起步的，4000点时已经处于牛市三浪的尾声，后面冲到4300多点后迎来四浪调整短期回调到3500点，最后五浪冲高到6124。15年牛市起步于2000点左右，4000点时已经处于五浪中段，后面冲高到4500点后快速回调到4100点再快速冲顶到5178点。当前这波牛市起步于2700点，4000点处于三浪中后段，而且这次突破4000点之前的走势比以往两次都更扎实，情绪上也更冷静，甚至还有人对当下的牛市将信将疑，这或许意味着后续的行情时间或者空间也会更乐观。
货币政策继续适度宽松对市场大行情是一个很重要的政策基础，所以大的趋势上还是一直坚定不移的，当前已经开始进入三浪中后段。这里想继续放量加速走成快牛的概率比较小，维持慢牛走势短期加速后就要面临整固需求。
这里牛市三浪中后段行情确认无疑了，gjd还在努力的砸盘压指数，上面抑制快牛的意志是非常坚决的，所以对于春节行情也还是不要有太高的期待，这里修正一点波浪的划分，之前对上周的调整定义为大三浪里面的小五浪里的2浪调整，但结合深成指和创业板指来看的话，更可能是小5浪里的4浪调整，也就意味着这波调整之后再次上攻可能是整个大三浪的最后一波上涨，尤其是这里如果后面上涨形成一个顶背离的短期头部结构将进一步确认这一判断。
三、市场情绪和风格特征
情绪修复第二天，这里最大的风险来自外围市场的下跌拖累，美股这里短期趋势不太乐观。板块上这波修复和指数共振的方向主要有光伏、地产、白酒。
四、战略和战术
聚焦高审美标准的交易，聚焦细分龙头。
五、强势板块和产业趋势
主线：无
强势轮动：化工、光伏、地产、酿酒、半导体、ai应用、算力、电力设备、商业航天、消费、煤炭。
六、信息分析
一、俄乌重建

 新一轮乌美俄三方会谈在阿布扎比开始举行。

关键要看这次能不能谈成。
聚焦核心，远离杂毛！
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000567s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=a_mffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000872s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000292s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000282s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000555s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000340s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000671s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 470995 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001044s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1770258931 WHERE `id` = 470995 [ RunTime:0.000707s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.003940s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 470995 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.002364s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 470995 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.008170s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 470995 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.013152s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 470995 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.002079s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 470995 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.009880s ]
0.114200s