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寻找住宅地产之锚——住宅的未来

  • 2026-02-09 06:44:24
寻找住宅地产之锚——住宅的未来
住宅地产价格的消失
锚？在哪里？是什么？
法拍房？
不是
里面有其他的成本
人口？
不是
有关系但不多
租售比？
或许是商业的锚
但肯定不是住宅的
到底什么是锚？康波周期！
1. 长波锚（康波）：技术革命驱动的50–60年长周期，决定房地产周期的启动时点与强度（繁荣期启动强周期约30年，衰退期启动弱周期约20年）；信用周期、利率环境、通胀预期随康波阶段显著变化，直接影响购房杠与资产定价。
2. 中波锚（库兹涅茨周期）：核心是人口结构（25–35岁购房主力）+ 城镇化率斜率 + 建筑业产能周期，这是房地产供需与价格波动的核心基本面，一个康波通常嵌套2–3个库兹涅茨周期。
3. 短周期锚（政策+金融）：信贷额度、房贷利率、限购限售、土地供应等

这里大胆说出来：今年就是房地产的转折点
本文来自网友投稿或网络内容，如有侵犯您的权益请联系我们删除，联系邮箱：wyl860211@qq.com 。

这个魔都的上海百分之20的二手房,慢慢的“没了”?!

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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000697s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=a_mffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000910s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000327s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000275s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000481s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000241s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000546s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 464631 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000399s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1771084572 WHERE `id` = 464631 [ RunTime:0.003207s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000264s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 464631 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000487s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 464631 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000869s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 464631 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.017426s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 464631 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.002269s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 464631 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.002632s ]
0.100929s