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中国地产拐点确定

  • 2026-02-05 16:05:41
中国地产拐点确定

*帮助中国1亿中产家庭构建财富的护城河

一、市场现状：并非共振下跌，而是结构性分化

当前房地产市场呈现出显著的“分化”特征，而非单纯的普跌。
价格指数表现：以2021年7月为基准（100点），目前房价指数虽有波动，但并未呈现单边崩塌态势。
总需求企稳：从2021年至2023年初，全国一二手房合计成交量下滑约30%。但自2023年初以来，总需求已趋于稳定。值得注意的是，这一稳定是在房价下跌、需求被压抑的背景下实现的，这意味着真实需求潜力高于当前成交水平。
成交结构迁移：
一手房：成交占比从80%降至50%。
二手房：成交占比从20%升至50%。

二、供给端：新房库存出清与价格支撑

新房市场的核心逻辑在于供应的急剧收缩。
开工腰斩再腰斩：年化住宅新开工面积较2021年高点下降了近80%。
库存去化：
全国口径的已开工未销售库存大幅下滑。
克而瑞数据显示，前30城的推盘量同比下滑了70%-80%。
价格坚挺的原因：低供应叠加结构性变化（高线城市占比提升、改善型产品占比提升），使得新房销售均价在过去几年实际上呈上涨趋势。

三、二手房市场：从“抛售潮”到“量价拐点”

二手房市场近期发生了深刻的变化，核心驱动力从“恐慌抛售”转向“资产配置”。

1. 价格下跌的根源（过去）

过去二手房价格下跌的核心驱动力是供应激增。
挂牌量创新高：25城二手房挂牌量持续攀升，导致供大于求，价格承压。
杠杆出清：这轮下跌本质上是上一轮加杠杆炒房者的“爆仓”出清过程。当跌幅接近40%时，高杠杆投机盘被迫离场。

2. 拐点信号的确认（现在）

近期市场出现了两个关键的逆转信号：
挂牌量持续下行：大约两个月前开始，25城挂牌量开始持续且加速下行。
成交量逆势创新高：过去三年二手房成交量逐年攀升，最近两周成交量同比上升40% 以上，处于历史同期最高水平。

3. 核心驱动力：租售比与利率的剪刀差

这一变化背后的经济学逻辑是租金回报率相对于资金成本的优势显现。

指标

变化趋势

当前水平

租售比

上升

25城平均从2.0%升至2.4%

按揭利率

下滑

从5%+降至3%左右

经营贷利率

下滑

约2.2%

理财/存款利率

下滑

降至1%出头

对于租客（刚需）：在部分二线城市或一线城市老破小，租金回报率（>3%）已高于经营贷成本（2.2%）。这意味着“月供 < 租金”，刚需被实质性激发。
对于房东（资产荒）：几年前理财收益高于租金，但现在租金回报（2.4%）显著高于理财收益（1%+）。在资产荒背景下，持有房产出租比卖出换理财更划算。

四、价格趋势：跌幅收窄，局部转正

基于上述供需变化，价格趋势已现端倪：
跌幅显著收窄：去年11月周环比跌幅曾达0.3-0.4%（月跌1.5%），而最新一周全国指数环比跌幅已收窄至0.11%。
局部已见底：上海、杭州等优势区域的二手房价格已在上周实现环比转正。
未来展望：虽然全国指数尚未转正，但基于“供减需增”的逻辑，拐点已基本确认。预计在未来两个季度内，全国指数有望企稳。
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000718s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=a_mffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000625s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000264s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000262s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000482s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000188s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000549s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 471292 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000362s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1770289380 WHERE `id` = 471292 [ RunTime:0.011596s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000259s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 471292 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000624s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 471292 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000347s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 471292 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.011035s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 471292 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.006209s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 471292 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.002736s ]
0.187202s