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商业地产红利已来?

  • 2026-02-09 06:49:56
商业地产红利已来?
很多人和我一样，当看到一则刺激地产的政策落地后，基本上是轻描淡写甚至不屑一顾的，从2016年房价大涨，到如今部分房产腰斩，许多家庭断供，普通老百姓对于地产从欣欣向往到闭口不谈，被房子“深度绑定”，成了许多人对于房子不看好的充分理由，并一步步验证，如今房价下跌已超过3年，住宅产品更新迭代，4代住宅层出不穷，又是熟悉的味道，从万人追捧到热度遇冷，掐指一算，也就半年时间，现在的人更理性了，更加追求性价比了，认知更高了，这是好事还是坏事，我暂时不评判，但是对于商业地产我始终没有下定论，按照人们普遍认知，商业地产根本不值一提，他不如住宅，变现差，融资属性差等等，但我认为商业地产的翻身之路可能要逐渐开始了，至于是否翻身成功，我们可以持续关注。
PART 01
首付比例降低的几大利好
投资者：利好—杠杆提升、资金效率翻倍；风险—还款压力与利率波动风险上升，需严控现金流与资产质量。
开发商：利好—去化与回款加速，库存压力缓解；风险—三四线/非核心项目去化仍慢，降价促销压力或存。
自用企业：利好—购置办公楼/厂房首付减少，现金流用于经营；风险—经营波动可能导致还款违约。
金融机构：利好—贷款需求与规模增长；风险—需强化风控，优选核心资产与优质主体。
市场整体：利好—存量盘活、商办转保障房提速；风险—过剩区域与低效资产或更难去化，加剧分化。
PART 02
真实案例分析
此套写字楼位于郑东新区龙子湖核心位置，双地铁环绕，临湖环境优美，目前挂牌价82万，如果按照实际成交70万，计算，首付30%，21万，贷款49万，10年期，月供在4700元左右，目前租金5000元左右，也就是说，如果价格合适，租金大于月供是可以实现的，那么商业地产10年回本，这个生意我想，相对比较稳定，只要区位优质，物业良好，10年后租金即使降价，每月也将会有一笔稳定的收入，是不是看起来比养老金还可观？
我随机调研了周围几个生意老板，目前都在租写字楼办公，他们表示如果价格合适，并贷款政策友好，谁不想买一个属于自己的办公楼，我个人认为当租金大于或者等于月供的时候，这个生意至少是可做的，比自己拿30万去加盟一个连锁餐饮要靠谱得多，也不费精力，纯纯“税后收入”，写字楼即使降价，只要租金有优势，是完全可以租出去的。
PART 03
商业地产策略建议
我觉得可以先定区位，然后继续等待，让子弹再飞一会。
投资者应该聚焦一线/强二线核心区位，优先选可稳定运营、租金回报清晰的资产；测算现金流覆盖还款，控制负债率与杠杆节奏。
我甚至建议银行也应该关注此类资产的融资问题，对于优质地区，与租金深度绑定，从租金方面控制风险。
如果租金能完全覆盖月供，我想从理论上讲，风险可能还要小于部分住宅按揭，不知道大家怎么看？
每日一歌，今日推荐
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000386s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=a_mffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000579s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000277s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000264s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000487s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000210s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000477s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 461996 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.005040s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1771621567 WHERE `id` = 461996 [ RunTime:0.002756s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.004597s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 461996 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000427s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 461996 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001570s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 461996 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.009661s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 461996 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.004049s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 461996 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.004646s ]
0.106220s