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地产大周期开始?

  • 2026-02-09 05:41:31
地产大周期开始?
这个结论过于宏大，本堡不敢下。
但有一段历史，我记得很清楚。
2022年，“三道红线”刚出没多久，市场上看好地产的人并不少。核心逻辑跟现在某些网红大V很相似：供给被压缩，活下来的开发商会吃掉未来的大部分蛋糕。
先不讨论那些判断失误、没能活下来的公司，只看一定能活的央企，比如保利。从 2022 年高点至今，股价跌去约 70%，市值从 2500 亿跌到 700 亿，跌得算多吗？
看一眼资产负债表，答案可能并不乐观。
截至目前，保利账上约有 7500 亿库存，包括在建和已建商品房。相比行业高点，实际消化的货值仅 10% 出头。
更现实的问题是：
现在全国商品房销售规模8.39万亿，已经低于 2015年的水平；销售面积8.8亿平回到09年的水平。
而BL当前的库存规模，仍然相当于 2016 年的 2.5 倍。且在2024年报中，库存计提跌价准备只有 70 亿，占比不到 1%。
这些库存，要消化多少年？一把计提，BL还在不在了？
图：保利的存货
同样是供给收缩，为什么 有色、化工、甚至锂电 能走出大行情，而地产不行？
我认为，需求是最大的差别。
地产的问题，不在供给，而在需求的不可测性。
第一，人口趋势是硬约束。
结婚率、新生儿数量持续下滑，刚需总量收缩已是不争的事实，这个行业已经很难再讲“总量扩张”的故事。
第二，地产的金融属性决定了一个残酷结果：
在价格下行周期里，过去二十年的“投资需求”，会反身变成甩卖中的供给。
二手房要多久才能消化掉这部分伪需求？没人知道。
正因如此，从股票投资的角度看，地产显然不具备吸引力。
它或许会在强力政策下出现脉冲式行情，但离形成真正的趋势还远的很。
反过来看有色、化工、锂电这些反通缩行业，除了价格上涨之外，还有一个更关键的共同点：
资产负债表没有被破坏，或者已经完成修复。
价格上涨，能够真实地兑现为利润。
以有色为例：
即便过去两年涨幅居前，但多数上市公司的估值，仍接近熊市水平——它们涨的不是估值，而是业绩。
这和“古典算力”非常相似：慢、稳、可兑现，也是市场能够走出慢牛的基础。
相反，那些依赖硬拔估值的板块，持续性天然不足。
比如计算机——可以有主题、有脉冲，但很难成为资金的战略性长期持仓。
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000594s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=a_mffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000752s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000370s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000265s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000587s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000401s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000572s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 465883 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001704s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1770834668 WHERE `id` = 465883 [ RunTime:0.020131s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001207s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 465883 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.005115s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 465883 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.002007s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 465883 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.006247s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 465883 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.011501s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 465883 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.007777s ]
0.136596s