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每日地产观察

  • 2026-02-09 04:49:34
每日地产观察
【调控风向】 1 - “三道红线”监管政策终结 >> 据报道，房地产企业已不再被监管部门要求每月上报“三道红线”指标，标志着这一关键监管工具的终结。分析认为，这有助于行业负债水平趋向健康，为市场释放了积极的政策调整信号。2 - 央行公布最新房贷利率 >> 中国人民银行数据显示，2025年第四季度全国新发放商业性个人住房贷款加权平均利率为3.06%，维持在历史低位。持续的低利率环境有助于降低购房者成本，支撑住房市场需求。3 - 国务院部署服务消费增长 >> 国务院办公厅印发《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方案》。虽然未直接提及房地产，但促进消费的政策导向有利于带动与住房相关的家居、装修等服务性消费需求。4 - 美国前总统表态稳房价 >> 美国总统特朗普表示不想让房价下跌，并将推高现存房主的住宅价值。这一表态反映了其对房地产市场的重视，可能影响市场对未来美国住房政策的预期。【市场动态】 5 -  港股内房股集体大幅拉升 >> 1月29日，港股地产板块涨幅居前，恒生指数收涨0.51%。融创中国涨超29%，世茂集团涨超23%，碧桂园涨超16%，万科企业涨超8%。市场表现与“三道红线”终结的消息形成共振。6 -  A股房地产板块震荡反弹 >> A股市场房地产板块表现活跃，深深房A、我爱我家、大悦城等多股涨停。主力资金监控显示，房地产板块获资金净流入，市场情绪受到政策面消息提振。7 -  荣盛发展推进债务重组 >> 荣盛发展公告，公司及子公司拟进行总额达25.24亿元的债务重组，涉及债务豁免、以物抵债及债权转让等多种方式。此举是房企化债获得实质性进展的案例之一。8 -  万科按期兑付住房租赁专项债 >> 万科A公告，其2021年发行的住房租赁专项公司债券（第一期）将按计划于1月30日分期兑付部分本金及支付利息，显示了头部房企在债务管理上的稳定性。9 -  世荣兆业业绩预喜 >> 世荣兆业预计2025年净利润为1.26亿元至1.86亿元，同比大幅增长236.77%～397.13%。业绩变动主要系房地产可结转收入及投资收益增加，为市场提供少数积极样本。10 -  ST中迪业绩预亏 >> ST中迪预计2025年净利润亏损2.8亿元至5.6亿元，亏损幅度同比增加。主要原因包括在售项目补提存货跌价准备，以及因债务逾期导致财务费用增加。11 -  头部房企化债获进展 >> 资讯显示，通过展期或重组等方式，头部房地产企业的债务化解工作正在取得实质性进展。这与个别房企公布的债务重组方案相印证，反映风险处置进程。12 -  民企债务融资工具发行增长 >> 交易商协会数据显示，2025年民营企业发行债务融资工具5782亿元，同比增长5.5%。融资渠道的适度恢复有助于缓解部分优质民营房企的资金压力。【行业相关】 13 -  美克家居巨亏预警 >> 美克家居预计2025年净利润亏损12亿元至18亿元。业绩巨亏主因是房地产持续调整、消费疲软致零售收入下滑，以及关店、资产减值等，凸显家居行业与地产景气度的高度关联。14 -  皮阿诺业绩预亏 >> 皮阿诺预计2025年净利润亏损3500万元至4500万元。公司称受房地产景气度低迷影响，主营业务收入下滑，并对部分大宗业务客户计提坏账减值，但2025年减值压力较2024年有所缓解。15 -  京基智农地产业务收入减少 >> 京基智农预计2025年净利润同比大幅下降76.88%～82.49%。业绩下滑除生猪价格因素外，公司处于尾盘去化阶段的房地产业务销售收入同比减少也是重要原因。16 -  斯莱克业务转型仍亏损 >> 斯莱克预计2025年净利润亏损4000万元至7000万元。报告期内公司电池壳业务收入增长但尚未盈利，同时计提了存货跌价准备等资产减值损失，影响当期利润。行业分析点评：今日资讯集中反映了房地产行业正处于“政策底”巩固与“市场底”徘徊的关键阶段。“三道红线”这一标志性监管工具的终结，是重大的政策方向性调整，显著提振了资本市场情绪，港股内房股应声大涨。央行公布的房贷利率维持在历史低位，持续为需求端提供支撑。然而，行业基本面分化剧烈，世荣兆业的业绩预增与ST中迪、多家家居企业的巨额预亏形成鲜明对比，显示销售回暖与利润修复仍不均衡，部分企业及产业链上下游仍深陷经营困境。头部房企债务重组取得进展，但整体风险的出清尚需时日。市场情绪：7 分（温和利好）资讯日期：2026-01-29
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000980s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=a_mffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.001393s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.020307s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.003323s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.001433s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.004809s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.001552s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 467039 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.006483s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1770616607 WHERE `id` = 467039 [ RunTime:0.016053s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.002177s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 467039 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.005934s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 467039 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.005521s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 467039 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.022340s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 467039 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.006353s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 467039 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.016500s ]
0.261741s